Prices increased by nearly 2% on April 1, concluding what has been an unusually strong month for oil. Simultaneously, Donald Trump is discussing the potential for resolving the US-Iran conflict in the coming weeks. This contrast is precisely where the market currently stands. While there is hope for a gradual improvement, it is not enough to soothe concerns.
Brent is still sitting above $105 and WTI isn’t far behind. In India, MCX crude also opened higher. None of this looks like a market preparing for peace. The reason is fairly straightforward: the Strait of Hormuz is still not functioning normally. This isn’t just another shipping route. A big lump of the world’s oil moves through it, so even limited disruption tightens supply faster than expected.
Trump’s comments about a possible withdrawal sound positive, though markets have heard mixed signals before. His stance has shifted often enough to make investors cautious. What’s also hard to ignore is the military build-up continuing in parallel. Another US aircraft carrier group heading into the region doesn’t exactly align with the idea of a quick wrap-up. That disconnect is keeping sentiment fragile.
Let’s say the conflict cools off soon. That still doesn’t solve the bigger issue of getting Hormuz fully operational again. Infrastructure damage, security risks and coordination challenges could stretch timelines. The UAE wants a coalition to reopen the route, while China and Pakistan are pushing for a ceasefire. When multiple players step in like this, it usually means resolution won’t be simple.
Right now, oil isn’t reacting to headlines; it’s reacting to uncertainty that hasn’t cleared. Prices may not spike wildly every day, though they’re unlikely to drop meaningfully either. Until supply flows through Hormuz without risk again, crude will stay supported. For now, the market seems more comfortable pricing in tension than trusting early signs of peace.