Oil prices continued to rise on July 15, with Brent crude climbing above AED 312 ($85) a barrel. The increase came after the US announced a renewed naval blockade on Iranian ports and military activity increased in the Strait of Hormuz. These developments raised concerns about global oil supplies passing through one of the world’s busiest energy routes.
Brent crude climbed AED 316.30 ($86.19) a barrel in early trade, up 1.72%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) advanced to AED 295.27 ($80.40), gaining 1.4%. Brent saw its biggest daily rise since May 2020, increasing by nearly 9.6%. Both benchmarks touched their highest levels in about a month.
The latest price surge followed a series of military developments involving the US and Iran. US President Donald Trump announced a naval blockade covering Iranian ports, while US forces carried out another round of strikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure linked to attacks on commercial shipping. Iran said it had again closed the Strait of Hormuz after hostilities resumed last week.
The country also claimed drone strikes on US positions in Jordan and announced attacks on military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait. Reuters could not independently verify those claims. Explosions were also reported in Bandar Abbas and Kish Island. Earlier attacks on two UAE oil tankers resulted in one fatality and several injuries among crew members.
The Strait of Hormuz handles nearly one-fifth of global crude oil shipments. Any disruption along the route quickly affects energy markets and shipping costs. President Trump also announced that the US would begin charging countries for securing commercial shipping through the strategic waterway. The move marks a significant shift from Washington's long-standing policy on maritime security.
The latest conflict has also raised questions over the future of diplomatic efforts launched after the memorandum of understanding was signed in June 2026. The renewed fighting has weakened expectations of a near-term return to normal shipping activity.
Market analysts said traders are placing greater emphasis on uncertainty surrounding tanker movements than on the military action itself. Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research at Kotak Securities, said Brent crude has moved toward the upper end of the firm's base-case forecast of AED 257 to AED 294 ($70 to $80) a barrel. He said prices could climb to AED 312-331 ($85-$90) if shipping disruptions continue.
Nuvama Institutional Equities stated that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could affect almost 20 million barrels of crude oil moving through the route each day. Under such a scenario, the brokerage estimated oil prices could rise to between AED 404 and AED 551 ($110 and $150) a barrel.
Crude prices are likely to stay volatile as military activity continues around the Strait of Hormuz. Market participants are watching shipping flows and diplomatic efforts for signs that could influence global oil supplies in the coming days.
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