Goldman Sachs has raised its Brent crude price forecast for December to USD 105 per barrel from USD 90, while increasing its 2027 average estimate to USD 88 from USD 80. The bank also lifted its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forecast to USD 94 per barrel for December and USD 78 for 2027.
The revised outlook reflects growing concerns over supply disruptions linked to conflicts in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine. Goldman Sachs strategist Daan Struyven said geopolitical tensions could keep global oil supplies under pressure.
“The Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, together with broader geopolitical fragmentation, create high supply-disruption risk,” the report said.
The bank has factored a global supply shortfall of 1 million barrels per day into its 2027 base case. It also warned that actual prices could exceed its forecasts if disruptions intensify.
Goldman Sachs’ projection is higher than estimates from other major institutions. The World Bank expects Brent crude to average USD 79 per barrel in 2027. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) placed its forecast at USD 83.74.
Earlier market expectations pointed towards a global oil surplus. S&P Global Energy had estimated excess supply above 2 million barrels per day, with inventories potentially rising by 450 million barrels between December and June.
The Iran conflict disrupted that outlook, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz severely affected. S&P Global Energy estimated cumulative supply losses at 1.1 billion barrels by the end of April. After the US and Iran reached a memorandum in June, stranded crude shipments began moving again. Brent and WTI futures fell to around USD 70 - USD 73 per barrel.
However, the ceasefire later collapsed, while threats to energy infrastructure and shipping disrupted recovery. By September, attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and stronger Chinese buying pushed spot Brent to USD 118 per barrel.
The latest forecasts point to continued pressure on energy costs. Higher crude prices could support energy stocks, while airlines, transport companies and petrochemical producers face increased operating expenses.
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