Oil markets entered fresh turbulence this week after President Donald Trump signaled he did not want to extend the ceasefire with Iran. The announcement sent Brent crude briefly past $100 a barrel before prices pulled back slightly after Trump confirmed the truce would continue until Tehran submits a unified proposal. The back-and-forth left traders rattled and markets uncertain about what comes next.
Brent crude futures climbed more than 5% to a session high of $101.15 following reports that Vice President JD Vance had called off his trip to Islamabad for peace talks with Iran. The cancellation signaled a breakdown in diplomatic momentum that had briefly calmed energy markets after weeks of extreme volatility.
The backdrop to this latest spike is severe. The conflict triggered what the International Energy Agency described as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market with the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut to commercial traffic. Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel on 8 March 2026 for the first time in four years rising to $126 per barrel at its peak.
Even after Trump extended the ceasefire tanker traffic through the strait remained light as shippers continued to face a dangerous security environment. Iran's Revolutionary Guard seized two container ships attempting to cross without authorization adding to the sense that the waterway remains far from safe.
The strait carries around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade along with significant volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilizers. A prolonged closure threatens to push food and fuel costs higher across Asia, Europe and developing economies with limited fiscal room to absorb the shock.
Goldman Sachs warned that while the ceasefire extension reduces the immediate risk of further infrastructure damage the longer the disruption lasts the more global inventories draw down. The bank estimated Brent crude hovering around $80 per barrel by year-end under a recovery scenario roughly $20 above pre-conflict forecasts.
Real-time data as of April 25 shows Brent crude at $105.30 per barrel with the OPEC basket at $106.30, confirming that even with a ceasefire in place the market remains deeply on edge. The path to stable oil prices runs through the Strait of Hormuz and right now that path remains dangerously narrow.