Entry-level workers are facing a tougher job market in occupations that are more exposed to artificial intelligence, according to a new analysis from Stanford University’s Digital Economy Lab. The study found that employment among workers aged 22 to 25 in highly AI-exposed occupations was 19% below the level it would have reached if it had grown at the same pace as employment in less-exposed fields.
The findings renewed concerns about how rapidly changing technology could affect young workers starting their careers, particularly in roles where companies can use new tools to automate or speed up routine tasks.
The Stanford researchers tracked employment trends among different age groups and occupations using payroll data. Their latest analysis found a clear divergence for younger workers in jobs with high exposure to the technology.
Importantly, the study does not conclude that there has been a widespread collapse in employment caused by AI. Instead, the researchers describe a concentrated gap affecting young workers in specific occupations. Experienced employees in the same highly exposed fields have not experienced a comparable decline. The gap also widened steadily since the researchers first examined the issue in 2025.
One of the study’s more significant findings is that the change appears to be driven largely by reduced hiring of younger workers rather than a surge in job separations. That distinction matters. Instead of companies rapidly replacing existing employees, businesses may be becoming more selective about hiring people for entry-level positions when certain tasks can already be handled using new technology.
For recent graduates, this could mean fewer opportunities to enter fields such as software development and other technology-heavy occupations. The researchers found that the employment gap is concentrated in occupations where the technology has greater potential to perform or assist with tasks. Less-exposed occupations have not shown the same pattern.
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The findings suggest that early-career workers may need to adapt as employers change how they structure entry-level positions. Rather than eliminating entire professions overnight, technology could first reduce the number of junior roles available while increasing expectations around productivity and technical skills.
However, Stanford researchers caution against treating the results as proof that technology is responsible for every employment change. The study identifies a strong relationship between exposure and employment trends but does not establish that technology alone caused the decline.
For now, the research offers a warning rather than a prediction: the impact of AI on employment may be showing up first among workers trying to get their foot in the door.