Oil prices are surging due to disruptions to crude supplies caused by the war in the Middle East. However, fuel prices are increasing even more rapidly than crude oil prices. This situation is reportedly due to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is forcing refiners in Asia to adjust their operations. The price increase follows a decision to limit oil exports and reduce processing rates.
The product market came under more severe stress than the crude markets as the war dislocated oil and fuel supplies and sent jet and diesel premiums over Brent to astronomical highs.
Recent news reports indicate that the price of jet fuel in Singapore, a key hub in Asia, surged by 140% last week. This increase is compared to the rates from February 27, 2026, the day before the US-Iran war began. As a result, Singapore's jet fuel prices have now reached $230 per barrel. In response to this sudden rise in price, Andon Pavlov at Kpler explained, “If crude had tracked jet fuel’s proportional move, Brent would trade around $175.”
According to Argus assessments, on February 4, 2026, in Europe, the northwest European jet fuel was trading at double the price of crude oil. The trading rates are mentioned below:
$88 per barrel premium to the North Sea Dated benchmark crude basket
$91 premium to front-month ICE Brent futures
Several reports suggest that the jet fuel premium over crude, known as the crack or refining margin, hit a record high. The price rate surged by more than 350% compared to last year.
Moreover, the prices of all refined products rose as supply disruptions were caused by the US-Iran war. But despite the geopolitical conflicts, no one has noticed the accelerating rise in jet fuel prices. Some analysts say another reason for the sudden rise in jet fuel prices is the disruption of supply from the Middle East of both crude and products.
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